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Cake day: July 23rd, 2023

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  • I don’t think a bail out would work (which isn’t to say the Trump administration won’t try it - you can never confidently predict they won’t do something stupid). If they can’t work out how to make a profit after $2T of capex, more money on the furnace isn’t going to help.

    As much as the bank bailouts after 2008 left a bad taste in my mouth, banks are at least self evidently a profitable business that were able to successfully use the bailout to stay afloat.

    I could potentially see the AI companies’ creditors getting a bailout but most of them seem to be private equity so a bailout would be really unpopular (although see my above comments on not betting against the current US leadership doing something stupid).

    On the bright side, there’s a real chance we could see Larry Ellison go personally bankrupt. He lives on loans secured against Oracle shares and Oracle is currently indebted up to its eyeballs and borrowing at basically junk rates. If it goes down, those loans get called and he eats shit (to the delight of Sun Microsystems fans everywhere).








  • gnutrino@programming.devtoLemmy Shitpost@lemmy.world•The Art of the Deal
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    24 days ago

    It’s not going to make any difference, even if Russia was sending enough diesel to get America through the next two years. That’s just not how commodity pricing works.

    If Russia weren’t sending this diesel to the US it would be sending it to China or India. Because it’s going to the US they will have to buy the equivalent amount from the global market so demand and by extension price remains the same. This isn’t “new” diesel being added to the market, it’s just being redirected.

    The only effect this has is that Russia can sell at global market price rather than having to take a discount to make it worth the buyer breaking US sanctions. It literally only helps Russia, America gets 0 benefit from this.